CNN political data cruncher Harry Enten delivered a new round of bad news to Vice President Kamala Harris during a show segment on Thursday.
According to a CNN/SSRS poll released Wednesday, Harris is leading Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump by 17 points among…
likely voters aged 18 to 29, and by 12 points among those aged 18 to 34. However, Enten cautioned that less than half of this young demographic is “extremely motivated” to vote, suggesting a considerable portion may not cast their ballots on Election Day.
We’ve got Kamala Harris up by 12 points, now if we thin ourselves down a little bit, let’s go under the age of 30, what do we have? We have an even larger lead for Kamala Harris, she’s up by 17 points … But, of course, are these voters actually going to turn out and vote?” he began.
“Extremely motivated to vote in the 2024 election, look at this, overall voters [is at] 64%. For voters under the age of 40, it’s just 49%. I think the key question isn’t just who they’re going to vote for, it’s whether they’ll turn out and vote. Oftentimes, younger voters are less likely to turn out and vote, and I think this year is going to be quite similar to that,” Enten continued.
Enten noted further that the vice president leads the former president among young voters by an average of 18 points in national polls, but that’s a 10-point decrease from Biden’s 28-point lead among the same demographic in September 2020.
The data guru also highlighted findings from a New York Times/Siena College poll, which revealed a significant gender gap among young voters in the Harris-Trump race across six key battleground states. Trump holds a 10-point lead among male voters, while Harris leads by 38 points among female voters.
Trump is currently leading Harris in key Sunbelt battleground states, including Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday. Harris holds a narrow 2-point lead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, but Trump’s past underperformance in swing state polling during the 2016 and 2020 elections suggests he might outperform current polls in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan
According to the NYT polling, Trump now leads Harris by five points in Arizona, 50-45 percent, as well as Georgia (49-45 percent) and North Carolina (49-47 percent).
“The polls of these three states, taken from Sept. 17 to 21, presented further evidence that in a sharply divided nation, the presidential contest is shaping up to be one of the tightest in history,” the Times noted, citing the polling data.
Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina are among the seven key battleground states where both the Trump and Harris campaigns have concentrated their efforts since Labor Day. Harris has demonstrated notable strength in several crucial Midwestern states, with Pennsylvania being particularly critical to her presidential aspirations, the outlet reported.
Arizona, a state President Joe Biden narrowly won by just over 10,400 votes in 2020, now poses a significant challenge for the Harris campaign. An August Times/Siena poll found Harris leading by five percentage points, but Latino voters appear to be shifting away from her. Notably, 10 percent of Latino voters remain undecided, however.
Trump is also benefiting from ticket splitting: while Harris lags behind, the Democratic Senate candidate in Arizona, Rep. Reuben Gallego, is currently leading GOP nominee Kari Lake.
“The polls found that voters in this part of the country were worried about their own future and the future of the nation,” the Times noted.
“Whatever road we’re on right now just, to me, does not look like it’s going to end well,” said Tyler Stembridge, 41, a fire captain in Centerville, Ga., who is a Republican. He voted for Trump in 2020 and intends to do so again, he told the outlet.
