Robert Pape Warns That the Weeks After the Midterms Could Set the Course for 2027

The Political Scientist Pointed to Risks in Washington, Iran and Ukraine

Political scientist Robert Pape warned that the weeks between the U.S. midterm elections and the seating of a new Congress could bring several crises into closer contact. In an appearance on The Diary of a CEO podcast, he discussed the congressional transition, the possibility of a wider war with Iran and the risk of intensified Russian attacks on Ukraine’s electricity supply. Decisions made during that period, he argued, could set the stage for a ‘devastating 2027’.

Pape, who previously advised former President Barack Obama, used the term ‘escalation trap’ to explain his concern. He described a period in which leaders could face growing pressure to respond to one another, with each response making it harder to step back. His warning concerned what might unfold over the following eight weeks, while the incoming Congress waited to take office.

The Congressional Transition Was His First Concern

Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives and Senate in the midterms, with the new Congress due to be sworn in in January. President Donald Trump responded to the Republican losses by saying his party would have won if he had been on the ballot. Those results determined who would control Congress once the new members took their seats, leaving an interval with the outgoing Congress still in place.

Pape questioned how Trump would respond during that interval, particularly as Republicans approached the loss of control of both chambers. He brought up January 6, 2021, while explaining why he pays attention to the period between an election and a change in political power. “The most dangerous time is the transition of power, and we saw this with January 6 [2021].”

The transition Pape was discussing concerned Congress. Trump’s remarks about how Republicans would have performed with him on the ballot gave a sense of how he viewed the party’s defeat. Pape’s concern was about what the president might do in the weeks before the new majority was seated. He treated that uncertainty as one of three overlapping risks facing the country.

“We are moving up rungs in escalation where risk is growing and we are about to enter the eight most dangerous weeks since this war began, and they may become the eight most dangerous weeks in our lives.” That was Pape’s assessment of the period ahead, encompassing decisions in Washington and developments in two conflicts abroad.

He Warned That a Short Campaign in Iran Could Lead to a Long War

One of the scenarios Pape discussed involved a possible three-day U.S. bombing campaign in Iran. He described a potential move to ‘a whole new level’ of attacks on leadership and economic targets. In his account, the immediate concern was the larger confrontation that such a change in targeting might set in motion.

The distinction between the duration of an operation and the duration of the conflict was central to the warning. Three days describes the possible opening campaign Pape discussed. His reference to a ‘forever war’ concerned what could follow if the strikes prompted further responses and prolonged the fighting. The timetable for the initial action offered little indication of when the confrontation might end.

Pape linked that risk to the calendar in Washington. The incoming Congress would take office in January, while decisions about whether to escalate in Iran could come sooner. He argued for waiting until the new Congress was seated and identified one exception to that recommendation. “No escalation by the Trump administration in Iran until the new Congress is seated unless Iran strikes first,” he said.

That proposal was aimed at the administration’s choices during the transition. Pape wanted it to avoid opening a new phase of the conflict before the change in Congress, subject to the condition he set out. In his assessment, restraint in Iran was one of the most important things the United States could do to reduce the risk of a wider international war.

Ukraine’s Electricity Supply Was Another Point of Concern

Pape also considered how Russian President Vladimir Putin might approach the war in Ukraine during the same period. He suggested that Putin could decide negotiations with Trump would fail to secure the Ukrainian territory Russia wanted. Under that scenario, Pape said Putin might pursue a more aggressive course.

He focused on the possibility of attacks on Ukrainian power stations. He used the phrase ‘dark winter’ to convey what prolonged outages could mean and said some areas might lose electricity ‘for a month or two’. The concern centered on the consequences for the areas affected if attacks damaged the electricity supply for an extended period.

Pape’s scenario depended on how Putin assessed the prospects for negotiations and what he chose to do afterward. It was the third risk in the period Pape described. Whereas his recommendation on Iran addressed a decision the Trump administration could make, his warning about Ukraine concerned a decision he believed Russia might make while Washington was dealing with its own transition and the conflict with Iran.

Pape Named Pakistan, Qatar and India as Potential Mediators

Alongside his recommendation to the Trump administration, Pape identified Pakistan, Qatar and India as countries that could take a more active role in trying to prevent escalation. He called on them to use their positions to encourage restraint from the parties involved in the conflicts he discussed.

His proposal gave those countries a role during the same period in which he wanted Washington to exercise caution. The emphasis was on communication before decisions to intensify the fighting had been made. In Pape’s view, potential mediators could use their influence to urge the parties to hold back while opportunities for diplomacy were still available.

The three concerns Pape raised involved different decisions and different leaders. In Washington, he was watching how Trump would respond before the new Congress took office. In Iran, he was concerned about the consequences of a possible U.S. escalation. In Ukraine, he was watching what Putin might do if he concluded that negotiations would fall short of his goals.

January provided a clear date for the change in congressional control. The decisions Pape was concerned about could come before then, and their consequences could extend well into 2027. His immediate proposals were to hold off on escalation in Iran unless Iran struck first and to give potential mediators an active role in pressing for restraint.